YTP Melbourne Cup Preview

Posted byyeahthepuntPosted inUncategorized

By Jack McInerney –

There are more Previews out there than there needs to be covering the Melbourne Cup so I will keep it short and succinct focussing on 2 key variables. What horses have run a minimum of 10,000 Metres in runs leading into the Melbourne Cup and which horses have previously won races over the 3200M Trip of the Melbourne Cup!

Anyone who has been following horse racing for a while would be familiar with the old adage made popular by the Cups King himself, Bart Cummings where he said that all horses heading into a Melbourne Cup must have a minimum of 10,000 Metres in their legs in the lead up to the race.

The list of the only 11 horses of the 24 to have run a minimum of 10,000 Metres are:

  1. Incentivise-21,510
  2. Grand Promenade-20,840
  3. Knights Order-19,020
  4. Great House-18,200
  5. Carif-17,420
  6. Spanish Moon-16,382
  7. Twilight Payment-14,473
  8. Pondus-12,664
  9. Sir Lucan-12,371
  10. Floating Artist-11,000
  11. Delphi-10,100

Also I believe that a big factor in a horses chances when lining up in the Melbourne Cup is whether they have won a race over 3200m or further. The 6 horses that have done so, or won races over distances further than 3200m are:

  1. 1- Twilight Payment – 2 Wins over 3200M

2. 3- Spanish Mission– 0 Wins over 3200M BUT  1 x 3600M win

3. 8- Ocean Billy– 1 Win over 3200M

4. 9- Selino– 1 Win over 3200M PLUS 1 x 3350m win

5.11- Knights Order – 1 Win over 3200M

6. 13- Carif– 1 Win over 3200M

The only 3 Horses that have run a minimum of 10,000 Metres in lead up races and have previously won at 3200M or further are:

#1 Twilight Payment – $14w/$3.80p

#11 Knights Order – $81w/$18p

#13 Carif – $101w/$22p

(Prices are current as of 4pm Monday 1/11/21 on NSW TAB)

Now remember these are not tips they are just the horses that satisfy what I deem to be the two main variables required! Anything can win in a Melbourne Cup!

I think Incentivise is a risk personally – its his first run over 3200M, I have a feeling there will be a sort of pile on by the riders to try and just whatever needed to bring the horse out of his comfort zone. If he wins the Melbourne Cup running away from them then I will be absolutely and completely astonished. I think he will jump at the very minimum $3.20 SP also. I think Horses like FLOATING ARTIST and SIR LUCAN will halve their quotes come jump time. Its going to be a cracking race and like i said earlier, Anything can win a Melbourne Cup!

GOOD LUCK & HAPPY PUNTING!!!

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