Rosehill 06/11/2021 $aturday $et by The One, The Only: MUG PUNTER    

Track Condition: Soft 5

Rail Position: +3m

Penetrometer: 5.48 Weather: Fine

Bias: RHIL=3m; look for on-pace/rails-in-run favours

Race 1: 6 Merlinite-4-1-2

Race 2: 12 Schiller’s Myst

Race 3: 4 Shibl-3-1-2

Race 4: 4 Seleque-2-8-3

Race 5: 3 Kitzbuhel-2-10-17

Race 6: 4 Pandora Blue-7-3-1

Race 7: 1 Sejardan-8-6-2

Race 8: 1 Rocha Clock-4-6-2

Race 9: 1 Flat Heaven-4-8-9

Race 10: 7 Blesk-2-1-9

Best Bets: Race 1 no 6, Race 5 no 3, Race 6 no 4

Value Bet of the day: Race 9 no 1

Lay Of the day: Flemington Race 1 no 5

Moral of the day: Race 8 no 1

Eagle Farm 06/11/2021 $aturday $et by ‘Johns Tips’   

One of Our Brisbane Tipsters ‘Johns Tips’ is back with another $aturday $et!

Track Condition: Good 4

Rail Position: +8 Metres Entire Circuit

(Prices are current as of 11:00am Saturday 6th November, 2021 on NSW TAB Fixed odds)

R2 #1 GO WANDJI – First of the short pricers of the day, worth enjoying this race as $1.28 is crazy short even though he will be winning comfortably. 

R3 #4 STUCK WITH YOU – Moderate race with the Sydney form around this horse strong and has won at Eagle Farm before in its only run. Favourite unproven at metro level, pretty confident here.

R4 #6 SHAMATON – Perfect race for him, but again $1.40 about him is not inviting. When Gollan says it’s the best of the day, typically you can trust him, particularly with him also having the 2nd fav Vaporising.

R5 #2 SERGEANT SILVA – Racing well, proven at eagle farm and with Kilner claiming 2kg, at $7 looks a great each way bet. Favourite looks promising, but doesn’t have the runs on the board yet.

R6 #2 LIGULATE – Finished hard for 2nd last start, extra 150m at eagle farm looks perfect with a solid tempo expected. Also had success at the track prior. 

R8 Two Horse Play: #3 GENZAI THE WOLF and #9 SHE ZA BOSS at double figures at time of writing. It’s an open race, but both horses are very consistent overall, especially at eagle farm with good overall times including sectionals and around this class and all form around them franked… both over the odds.

Flemington 2/11/21 – Melbourne Cup $et!


Our Victorian Tipster Mitchell Bennett aka Phil McTips is back with a Melbourne Cup set!

(Prices are current at 5am the 2nd of November 2021 through S-Tab, Gamble Responsibly.)

Track Conditions – Good4

Rail Position – True Entire Circuit 

🐎

R1. Brereton ($4.20)

R2.TWOHORSEPLAY: Wil John – Savvy Valentino E/W ($3.60) & ($7/$2.30)

R3. Housay ($3.30)

R4.Groovy Kinda Love E/W ($6/$2) (Best Value) 

R5.TWOHORSEPLAY: Blondeu/Regardsmaree E/W ($4) & ($14/$3.80)

R6. Tadweer E/W (Best Roughie) ($26/$4.80) 

R7. THE CUP – Incentivise – Spanish Mission E/W ($2.80) & ($10/$3.40) 

R8. TWOHORSEPLAY: April Rain – Need New Friends E/W ($4.40) & ($34/$7)

R9. Maracana (Best) ($4.20)

R10. Pandemic (Next Best) ($5/$2)

🐎

Best – R9 Maracana 

Next Best – R10 Pandemic 

Best Value – R4 Groovy Kinda Love 

Best Roughie  – R6 Tadweer 

GOODLUCK & HAPPY PUNTING!

YTP Melbourne Cup Preview

By Jack McInerney –

There are more Previews out there than there needs to be covering the Melbourne Cup so I will keep it short and succinct focussing on 2 key variables. What horses have run a minimum of 10,000 Metres in runs leading into the Melbourne Cup and which horses have previously won races over the 3200M Trip of the Melbourne Cup!

Anyone who has been following horse racing for a while would be familiar with the old adage made popular by the Cups King himself, Bart Cummings where he said that all horses heading into a Melbourne Cup must have a minimum of 10,000 Metres in their legs in the lead up to the race.

The list of the only 11 horses of the 24 to have run a minimum of 10,000 Metres are:

  1. Incentivise-21,510
  2. Grand Promenade-20,840
  3. Knights Order-19,020
  4. Great House-18,200
  5. Carif-17,420
  6. Spanish Moon-16,382
  7. Twilight Payment-14,473
  8. Pondus-12,664
  9. Sir Lucan-12,371
  10. Floating Artist-11,000
  11. Delphi-10,100

Also I believe that a big factor in a horses chances when lining up in the Melbourne Cup is whether they have won a race over 3200m or further. The 6 horses that have done so, or won races over distances further than 3200m are:

  1. 1- Twilight Payment – 2 Wins over 3200M

2. 3- Spanish Mission– 0 Wins over 3200M BUT  1 x 3600M win

3. 8- Ocean Billy– 1 Win over 3200M

4. 9- Selino– 1 Win over 3200M PLUS 1 x 3350m win

5.11- Knights Order – 1 Win over 3200M

6. 13- Carif– 1 Win over 3200M

The only 3 Horses that have run a minimum of 10,000 Metres in lead up races and have previously won at 3200M or further are:

#1 Twilight Payment – $14w/$3.80p

#11 Knights Order – $81w/$18p

#13 Carif – $101w/$22p

(Prices are current as of 4pm Monday 1/11/21 on NSW TAB)

Now remember these are not tips they are just the horses that satisfy what I deem to be the two main variables required! Anything can win in a Melbourne Cup!

I think Incentivise is a risk personally – its his first run over 3200M, I have a feeling there will be a sort of pile on by the riders to try and just whatever needed to bring the horse out of his comfort zone. If he wins the Melbourne Cup running away from them then I will be absolutely and completely astonished. I think he will jump at the very minimum $3.20 SP also. I think Horses like FLOATING ARTIST and SIR LUCAN will halve their quotes come jump time. Its going to be a cracking race and like i said earlier, Anything can win a Melbourne Cup!

GOOD LUCK & HAPPY PUNTING!!!

YTP BLACKBOOK

After a few misses last time out for the blackbook and a clean out.  We have found a few that caught the eye.


RANDWICK – 23/10/21

Track Condition: Good4

Race 1 – 2yo Plate 1000m: 

6. SHALATIN (5/13)Jumped awkwardly from wide gate and dropped out the back of the field to settle second last.  Coming into the straight and green as they come. He dodged and weaved through the field in the straight, making ground on a leader friendly track.  When he learns what it is all about, he will be good. 


DOOMBEN  – 23/10/21

Track Condition: Soft5

Race 2 – 2yo Plate 1110m:

4. HINKYTONK DIVA (4th/7) After 3 week rest  from her impressive 2nd on debut, this was always a step up in class. Jumped quickly then found herself three wide the trip.  Found open space in the straight when all too late. Hit the line well and there was excuses.


R4 Open Class 1350m:

1. LIGULATE (2nd/8) Soon as he jumped, jockey went straight up in the irons, showing his intention dropping back in the field.  Second last into the turn, Mallyon was confident with a lap full of horse under him. When attempting to come out in the straight bumping another horse on his outside. Then slowly started to hit his straps and then the afterburner hit full throttle 70m out, to just miss on the line. Not a stable I have much trust in but on form wins next start.


YTP BLACKBOOK📓

EXCELTIC

BAANONE

SHALATIN

HINKYTONK DIVA

LIGULATE


SPEND: $520

PIZONIE

BANK:   $557.50

Rosehill 30/10/2021 $aturday $et by The One, The Only: MUG PUNTER   

Track Condition: Good 4

Rail: True

Penetrometer: 4.98

Weather: Fine

Bias: RHIL=True; on-pace/rails-in-run some advantage

Race 1: 2 Katalin-3-6-1

Race 2: 6 Lord Ardmore-5-2-8

Race 3: 1 Ice In Vancouver-4-8-5

Race 4: 4 Different Strokes-11-15-6

Race 5: 3 Shared Ambition-2-6-5

Race 6: 10 Big Parade-2-4-13

Race 7: 2 I’m Thunderstruck-9-1-13

Race 8: 4 On the lead-2-12-6

Race 9: 5 Ma and Pa-8-3-7

Race 10: 4 Zoushack-11-1-7

Best Bets: Race 1 no 2, Race 6 no 10, Race 8 no 4

Value Bet: Race 2 no 6

Lay Of the Day: Melbourne Race 2 no 4

Moral of the day: Race 9 no 5

Eagle Farm 30/10/2021 $aturday $et by ‘Johns Tips’  

One of Our Brisbane Tipsters ‘Johns Tips’ is back with another $aturday $et!

Track Condition: Good 4

Rail Position: +5.5 Metres Entire Circuit

(Prices are current as of 10:00am Saturday 30th October, 2021 on NSW TAB Fixed odds)


R1 #2 Big Muskie (Best Bet) ($1.55)


R2 #3 Youngblood ($2.30)


R3 #1 Mishani Persuasion ($3)


R4 #4 Refero ($2.15)


R5 #3 The Big Goodbye ($4.20)


R6 #1 Wapiti ($3)


R7 #1 Genzai the Wolf ($3.70)


R8 #7 Siennas Choice ($6)


R9 #1 Animate E/W ($6/$2.10)


R10 #9 Contessa E/W (Best Value) ($6/$2)


Best Bet: R1 #2 Big Muskie ($1.55)
Best Value: R10 #9 Contessa ($6/$2)

Good Luck & Happy Punting!
Enjoy Derby Day!

Eagle Farm 30/10/2021 $aturday $et by Caiden Weston  

One of Our Brisbane Tipsters Caiden Weston is back with another $aturday $et!

Track Condition: Good 4

Rail Position: +5.5 Metres Entire Circuit

(Prices are current as of 10:00am Saturday 30th October, 2021 on NSW TAB Fixed odds)


R5 #5 GAVE US UP – ($8/$2.40)

Plain and simple wrong price, how they put up 20s? Unreal, anyway. Forgive last, clearly didnt go a yard at the coast on a heavy track. Back to a firm surface, drawn well, stewart on and will be flying down the outside late. Another here that could run a race is #7 MILL ROSSA ($16/$3.90), also looks the wrong quote and has done nothing wrong to date. Handles farm first time the query? BEST E/W 

R6 #5 TEARS OF LOVE – ($10/$4)

Intriguing contest here. I love wapiti as a horse hes tough but $3 with 59? Pass. Tears draws the fence, maps to roll forward with 56. Won track trip beating London banker. Been up a while but hes a dogfighter and these others will have a task getting past him late. NEXT BEST E/W 

R9 #4 BARNEY’S LAW ($9/$2.70)

Look I’ve got to tip him because if i dont he’ll win. Just your typical tough as nails horse thatll show up and put in 99% of the time you take him to the races. Drawn sticky out in 8, the map is a little tricky too, however, maybe the luck falls our way this week? If it does he can definitely win. BEST VALUE

GOOD LUCK & HAPPY PUNTING!!!