GOLF: Scottish Open Preview

By Nic Rees –

Hold onto your kilt’s folks! the European tour heads to North Berwick in Scotland this week for the Scottish Open.

The Scottish Open is one of two main events this weekend along with the John Deere Classic that will serve as a last chance to qualify and also to prep players for next week’s Major – The Open Championship. 


Needless to say, many of the big guns are out and about dialling in their skills for the upcoming major. A total of 17 of the world’s top 50 players will be vying for the title at the Renaissance club highlighted by world number one Jon Rahm. Fresh from a US Open win Rahm is in irresistible form and is hard to look past here. Currently at $8.50 he’s the only player in single digits – and for good reason,  Rahm has been lights out from the fairway this season averaging a ridiculous 71% greens hit in regulation.

As a result, he leads all tour players in scoring average (69.602). He won’t have it all his way though, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Colin Morikawa all in the mix.

Rory is one to keep an eye on as he has been hovering around the top 20 in his last 6 starts, His most recent a T8 finish at the US open was a sign that the Northern Irishman could pounce at anytime and take away his second tour win this season. 


BEST BETS: Jon Rahm is hard to go past here for the outright win at $8.50,

VALUE BETS: Local legend (and world no. 50) Robert MacIntyre is at $31 to be the first Scot with win his home Open since Colin Montgomeri in 1999 or at $2.60 to finish in the top 20. 


MULTI OF THE WEEK: Sportsbet is currently offering: Any 4 of these players to finish in the top 20: Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Robert MacIntyre or Christiaan Bezuidenhout which is paying $6. 


Good Luck and Happy Punting!!!

Midweek 7/7/21 $ANDOWN $ET

Our Victorian Tipster Mitchell Bennett aka Phil McTips is coming of an absolute fill up Saturday at Flemington where his Best Value Bet saluted at $6 and his Best Bet won so thats 3 sets he has produced for us now with his Best Bet saluting all 3 times!

But just remember if it were easy to tip multiple winner every meeting we would all be millionaires! Gamble Responsibly.

(Prices are current at 10am Wednesday 7th July 2021 through NSW TAB)

R1. Semenuk (Best Bet) ($3.10)


R2. TWO HORSE PLAY: Murrumbidgee River to win & White Heath E/W ($2.15) & ($101/$17)


R3. Write The Score (Next Best) ($2.20)


R4.  Citaleon ($2.70)


R5. Cafe Tortoni E/W (Best Value) ($8.50/$2.60)


R6. High Risk ($3.80)


R7. Teramia ($3.50)


R8. TWO HORSE PLAY: National Choice/Kamien E/W ($3.80/$1.70) & ($8/$2.60)

BEST BET – Race 1 #2 Semenuk ($3.10)

NEXT BEST – Race 3 #11  Write The Score ($2.20)

BEST VALUE – Race 5 #Cafe Tortoni ($8.50/$2.60)

QUADDIE:
Leg 1 – 1,6,8,10
Leg 2 – 5,6,8
Leg 3 – 8,9,10
Leg 4 – 2,4,5,12,13

$50 = 27%

GOOD LUCK & HAPPY PUNTING!!!

YTP BLACKBOOK: Horses to Follow!

By Hilly & Jack McInerney – aka Hilly & Macca –

The rain gods played a big part in Saturday’s racing with the Sunshine Coast (Cup day) being abandoned and rescheduled to this coming Sunday. It also didn’t miss Sydney, as a result the meeting was run on a heavy track and the Flemington meeting in Melbourne being run on a soft track. Taking this into account there were excuses and factors why some horses failed and some excelled.

We only have 3 runners to focus on this week but we will make these a recurring article every Tuesday covering the runners from the previous Saturday.


Rosehill (03/07/21) – Track Rating: Heavy8

Race 2 – #4 ANETHOLE: If you backed the former Godolphin trained, now Australian Bloodstock owned galloper then I am sure the trauma is still very fresh. To say that his run was a tough watch would be putting it very very lightly and can be summarised by the closing quote about the horses performance in the Stewards Report:

“In the home straight was unable to obtain clear running and could not be tested at any stage.”

After finding himself last on the turn with 400 metres to go its safe to say Avdulla panicked a bit as he hurriedly rode the horse up the rear end of the two horses in front of him on the rail and one off the rail essentially boxing himself in and it was a seriously crook watch as Avdulla sat up looking for a gap, which never eventuated.

Put simply, the horse should have pissed in! Get on next start no matter where it is racing, It will be winning

Race 5 – #8 JUST FIELD: The daughter of 2yo listed winner Shoboard and one of the Boom sires of the moment Deep Field has taken some time to learn her craft, with only 3 wins from 18 starts. She looks to have come back this prep in good order winning her only trial.

Jumping from a wide barrier she dropped back to last and a few of the fence. When last into the straight she copped a slight bump when looking to go wide. This pushed her back into the middle with some traffic to get through the gaps opened and she showed an electric turn of foot hitting the with one in front of her. Super run and the one to follow from the race.


Flemington (03/0721) – Track Rating: Soft6 


Race 1 – #6 REGULUS: This nicely bred 2yo Colt stepped out for the first time ridden by the in form jockey of the moment Jamie Kah and looked like he was going to storm over the top of the field until fitness gave way the final 100. Will obviously get over more ground in his race career. Looks well above average!

BOOKIE TALK: A quick chat with 20+ Year Veteran Bookie Grant Lynch from LynchBet.

By Jack McInerney –

1- What are the origins of LynchBet? – How did you get into the Racing Game? Were you born into it? How long have you been involved now? 

GRANT: Believe it or not I came from a completely non-racing family! I was looking for a second job (just to get ahead). I was 20 yrs of age and my partner at the times Father was close to Sydney Rails Bookie Mal Waters (now retired).

Mal gave me work both Saturdays/Nights and Monday nights (night Greyhound meetings) and I was like a duck to water so to speak.

Mal was very good to me and shared his knowledge and helped me greatly. I became very close to his right-hand man and when Mal retired Noel talked me into getting a licence (for the gallops) and I kicked off Cox Plate day 2000 at Kembla Grange.

It was really just a toe in the water and a hobby more or less, as I had a fairly senior role at my full-time gig elsewhere. One thing lead to another and the business grew and grew along with my passion for it.

I graduated to the number one stands at both Kembla and Newcastle tracks and finally got the business to a critical mass that I was able to quit my reg job (around 2004) and worked Saturdays and all the country carnivals large and small. 

I have had fantastic time in the bush and still try to attend as many as possible, having made some good friends from Mudgee to Murwillumbah! I have been a trackside bookie now 22 years and coming up to two years on line.

2- Who makes up the team at LynchBet? Is it just solely you working race days when trackside? Any employee’s? If so have they been with you for a long time?

GRANT: It is primarily a family business, with my son who has a fulltime role and another couple of traders and admin.

We have a team that are regulars at Kembla Newcastle Sat, and work on track wherever the Thursday Provincial meet is.

Most of the team are 10yrs plus years with us.

3- What makes Lynchbet Different?- What points of difference do you provide compared to say a massive corporate like TAB or Sportsbet?

GRANT: I think the number one thing is as the customer you can pick up the phone or email and speak directly to the bookie (decision maker), if your wanting to negotiate a price or want to discuss deposit promos or the like.

We bet very keen prices, along with high limits and I’m proud to say we have never closed anyone’s account.

We also use Osko and aim to process clients withdrawals in under 30mins, so funds are in your nominated account almost instantly. 

4- Was being forced online last year due to the Covid-19 Pandemic a blessing or a hindrance?  Did you grow your customer base during that time? Was it daunting taking the step from Manual Bookmaking (in person on track) to Digital Bookmaking (anonymously off track) so to speak?

GRANT: Look it has been a blessing mostly, I seriously underestimated the work involved especially at the back end admin etc.  Having said that I like a challenge and it’s been fun.

We have experienced incredible growth, which I guess is testament to the levels of customer service, prices and an outstanding rewards program.

In regards to moving from Manual to Digital Bookmaking, I can be a bit of a bull at a gate, so I have had to try and harness that and try and be more patient, Mal my old boss was always telling me that!

I like meeting people so there if obviously a disconnect on-line. Everyone is so different though…I try and call all new clients, a lot of people don’t answer numbers they don’t know (I get that) others are pleased to hear from others not. We are all different makes the world go round I suppose.    

5- Do you think in the current wagering landscape in Australia that the end in nigh for smaller Bookmakers?

GRANT: I sit on the Board of directors at the NSW Bookmakers, the Board is charged with doing many things including trying to help smaller fielders survive in the bush and city alike.

But at the end of the day the on track attendance is dropping especially mid-week, so it’s barely viable at some tracks. Racing NSW have been very proactive and we (I) are very grateful for that, however it varies from club to club in terms of the old “can do attitude”!   

6- Whats the biggest bet that you have layed and in turn paid out?

GRANT: Naturally it’s a losing one haha! We bet a phone customer back in the day $2500 EW Lieca Larrikan at 40/1 so that was unpleasant! We backed a fair proportion of it back with other bookies to reduce our liability. The funniest part of the story was my right hand man was bagging me to death for backing it back, he didn’t say much after it won! Goes to show they can win! 

7- Do you have any stories from over the years about taking on any BIG pro punters? GRANT: None that have a happy ending for me! But on a serious we accommodate them and I’m lucky enough to have a good relationship with many of them. It’s a shame the fluctuations were taken away from the track because now the corps don’t call up and put money into the ring on betbacks. When that was happening it stimulated betting and other runners we are giving a twist and away we go. 

8- Last and not least, where can the Punters find your online service?

GRANT: Anyway anyone that enjoyed this small insight is welcome to email or call me, you will be pleasantly surprised in the Welcome pack you receive upon sign up!

Enter the Code: YTP2

WEBSITE: http://www.lynchbet.com.au

EMAIL: grant@lynchbet.com.au

PHONE: 0409 360 147

Give a smaller boutique operator a go – what have you got to lose?  

Avilius – An enigma wrapped in a riddle.

Photo Credit: Ashley Brennan Photography

By Jack McInerney –

It was a cold and dreary Friday, 10th March 2017 and a horse debuted at the iconic Chantilly Racecourse in Northern France. The meeting was run on the synthetic track and its the 4th placegetter in the 3 year old Maiden, Avilius, which would go on to make his mark in Australia, once touted by some as the horse that could beat Winx!

He stood out a month later on 9th April 2017 and won his maiden comfortably by 2 Lengths when $2.20 favourite. He went on to have 5 more runs in France under the tutelage of World renowned trainer Andre Faber where he fell in at his third start to win the Listed DU SURESNES STAKES and ran placings in 3 Group2 races, most notably running second to international superstar CRACKSMAN with the former Waller stayer FINCHE running third. He was subsequently purchased by Godolphin and transferred to Australia to continue his racing career.

He arrived with a bang winning a BM91 (Ridden by Glyn Schofield) and three Group 3 Races in a row at his first four starts in Australia. At just his 5th start in Australia he lined up in Winx’s record breaking 4th Cox Plate where he jumped a $31 pop and ran fourth. He then went on to line up in the 2018 Melbourne Cup where he faced the gruelling 3200 metre journey for the first time and its safe to say he didn’t handle it running just under 70 lengths off the winner CROSS COUNTER, finishing 22nd of 24 runners.

Upon returning back from the paddock after his failure in the Melbourne Cup he won 4 of his next 5 runs which netted him a Group 3, a Group 2 and two Group 1 wins. An interesting fact about the horse is he finished his career with 2 wins from 2 runs on Heavy tracks, which were both Group 1 wins in The Ranvet and The Tancred.

He went on to always be somewhat competitive at the top level but he never reached the heights that he did in those first two preps in Australia. As a matter of fact his last win in Australia was way back on 21st September 2019 when he won the George Main Stakes. From that point on I think he just enjoyed going around with the pack because he ran 5th five times and 6th three times. His enigmatic career came to an end recently when he bled after his 6th placing in the Doomben Cup with Godolphin opting to retire him and make him the flag bearer for their Lifetime Care Program, and rightly so, he was a multiple Group1 winner who at one stage in his career could call himself a part of the highest echelon of Racing.

He was hard to figure out as he got older and undeniably became a costly conveyance to back and follow but you would go a long way to find a better looking horse in the yard when he was at his top.

He was a horse that people either loved or hated and I have to say I loved but him but I sent an article about his retirement this morning to a mate of mine and he responded with “maybe they can train him to catch mice”. Long Live Avilius.

Flemington 3/7/21 $ATURDAY $ET

Our Victorian Tipster Mitchell Bennett aka Phil McTips has produced 2 sets for us so far and both of his best bets have saluted and with multiple winners also! He is back this week with a Flemington Set.

(Prices are current at 10am Saturday 3rd July 2021 through NSW TAB)


R1. Mennea ($1.85)


R2. Seb Song (Next Best) ($4)


R3. Grand Promenade ($1.60)


R4. TWO HORSE PLAY: Royalzel/Whatafox E/W ($3.40/$1.60) & ($15/$4)


R5. Foxy Frida E/W (Best Value) ($6/$2.10)


R6. TWO HORSE PLAY: Dice Roll to win & Biometric E/W. ($2) & ($14/$2.90)


R7. Token Spirit ($4.40)


R8. TWO HORSE PLAY: The Astrologist/Romancer E/W ($4/$1.70) & ($17/$4.20)


R9. Lindhout (Best Bet) ($3)

BEST BET – Lindhout ($3)

NEXT BEST – Seb Song ($4)

BEST VALUE – Foxy Frida ($6/$2.10)

QUADDIE:
Leg 1 – 2,9
Leg 2 – 2,3,4,5,10
Leg 3 – 1,2,5,
Leg 4 – 3,5,13

$50 = 55.55%

GOOD LUCK & HAPPY PUNTING!!!

CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS – Heavy Tracks: Who handles them? Lets find out.

I have gone through the fields for the WINX GUINEAS and the GLASSHOUSE HANDICAP racing tomorrow at Sunshine Coast and focused strictly on each runners Heavy track record:

By Jack McInerney –

WINX GUINEAS:

#1 – Tumbler Ridge: 1: 0-0-0

#2 – Our Playboy: 1:1-0-0

#3 – Magic Conqueror: 1:0-1-0

#4 – Not An Option: 1:0-0-1

#5 – Cracker Esgee: First Run on Heavy Ground

#6 – Batangas Entry: First Run on Heavy Ground

#7 – Mob Buster: 1:1-0-0

#8 – Without Thinking: First Run on Heavy Ground

#9 – Tamilaide: 2:2-0-0

#10 – Better Lad: 1:0-1-0

#11 – Dzsenifer: First Run on Heavy Ground

#12 – Glitter Strip: First Run on Heavy Ground

#13 – The Actuary: 1:1-0-0

#14 – Palaisapan: First Run on Heavy Ground

#15 – Meg: 1:0-1-0

#16 – Gunmetal Girl: 1:0-0-1

FIRST FOUR with BEST HEAVY TRACK STATS: #9 TAMILAIDE ($4.60) – # 7 MOB BUSTER ($19) – #13 THE ACTUARY ($34) – # 2 OUR PLAYBOY ($9)

TOTAL NUMBER OF RUNNERS HAVING FIRST RUN ON HEAVY GROUND: 6 of 16

GLASSHOUSE HANDICAP:

#1 – Niccanova: 3:2-1-0

#2 – Emerald Kingdom: First Run on Heavy Ground

#3 – Scallopini: 1:0-0-0

#4 – Coventina Bay: 2:1-0-0

#5 – All Too Huiying: 6:1-1-1

#6 – Charleise: 1:0-1-0

#7 – Desert Lord: SCRATCHED

#8 – King Of Hastings: First Run on Heavy Ground

#9 – Snitch: 2:0-0-0

#10 – Boomsara: 2:0-0-0

#11 – Hail Manhattan: 1:0-1-0

#12 – Profit: First Run on Heavy Ground

#13 – Hilo: 3:1-0-1

#14 – Mr Bellagio: 5:2-0-0

#15 – Prometheus: 5:1-1-1

#16 – Splendoronthegrass: 2:1-0-0

#17 – Barefoot: 3:0-1-0

#18 – Regal Stage: 2:0-2-0

#19 (1E) – East Asia: 2:1-0-0

#20 (2E) – Luna Mia: First Run on Heavy Ground

FIRST FOUR with BEST HEAVY TRACK STATS: #1 NICCANOVA ($5) – #14 MR BELLAGIO ($81) – #15 PROMETHEUS ($51) – #13 HILO ($34)

NUMBER OF RUNNERS HAVING FIRST RUN ON HEAVY GROUND: 4 of 20

GOOD LUCK & HAPPY PUNTING!!!

Midweek Melbourne $et

After a cracking Debut on Saturday with 4 winners saluting including his Best Bet CORNER POCKET which won impressively, our Victorian Tipster Mitchell Bennett aka Phil McTips is back with a Midweek $andown $et.

(Prices are current as of 11:00am Wednesday 30th June 2021 through NSW TAB)

$ANDOWN $ET:

R1. Crestani ($3.10)

R2. Thunder Point E/W ($14/$4.20)

R3. Nordic Pride ($5)

R4. TWO HORSE PLAY: Carrie/She’s On Time – Both E/W ($4.40/$1.90) & ($9/$3)

R5. Wilmont Pass ($3.20)

R6. Smoking Romans ($2)

R7. Influential Jack ($4)

R8. Little Stevie E/W ($5/$1.95)

R9. TWO HORSE PLAY: Chief Altony/Facemask E/W ($3.40/$1.65) & ($12/$3.60)

Best Bet – Race 6: Smoking Romans ($2)

Next Best – Race 7: Influential Jack ($4)

Best Value – Race 2: Thunder Point ($14/$4.20)

Quaddie:

Leg 1 – 2,11

Leg 2 – 5,10,13

Leg 3 – 3,8,10

Leg 4 – 2,6,9,14,19

$50 = 55%

GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY PUNTING!!!

Opinion: INCENTIVISE – Will the hype horse of the moment prove himself in the Melbourne Spring?

By Jack McInerney –

Remember the Steve Tregea trained horse BERGERAC? He was a tough gelding by bread & butter stallion Drumbeats, he even won a Saturday Sydney Metro race (Paying $14), in saying that the class of the race was evident by the battler ISLAND MISSILE jumping the $3.20fav. Another interesting piece of racing history from that meeting was in race 3 where the Brent Stanley trained RED ALTO ($10) beat 8 other horses all hailing from the C.Waller stable, some feat!

Now thats enough about BERGERAC, lets talk about what everyone in racing is talking about, his little half brother whose dad was a Stallion who won a Cox Plate as a maiden (Shamus Award), the horse of the moment, INCENTIVISE.

When you have won your last 4 starts by a combined margin of just shy of 40 Lengths its self evident as to why the hype continues to grow by the day surrounding this horse and its future plans of lining up in both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups in the Melbourne Spring Carnival.

He has been installed as $9 Favourite for the Caulfield Cup and $13 Favourite for the Melbourne Cup with NSW TAB which some are calling an act of lunacy taking into account the quality of the opposition at his past 4 starts.

His 12 Length demolition of his opposition last start in the G3 Tattersals Cup was nothing short of spectacular with the Group1 Winner MIRAGE DANCER coming a distant second. Steve Tregea who owned the horse outright two runs back sold a 50% share in him for an undisclosed amount to the 2 current doyen owners in Australian Racing, Mr Brae Sokolski and Mr Ozzie Kheir who as a result would be transferred to Peter Moody to be trained for the Melbourne Spring Carnival. And also as a result of the sale the horse went from racing in Tregea’s distinct Red & White silks to Brae Sokolski’s Green and Black tartan style silks. A sight which lights up the eyes of any true racing fan invoking memories of the dynamic YES YES YES and his emphatic Everest Win when ridden by Group One Glen Boss!

Tregea has been quoted as saying: “For a horse that you wouldn’t give two bob for twelve months ago … I just don’t know what to say. He just keeps on improving and improving,”

What a dream scenario for Tregea really, a horse he didn’t rate at all turns out to show borderline prodigious talent to the eye and on paper (if you listen to the ratings men and women) and he sells 50% of it for mega money and just gets to sit back and see how it unfolds, after all he does own half of the Caulfield Cup AND Melbourne Cup Favourite. To say it is a big go would be a grave understatement.

Another interesting thing to note is Tregea sold INCENTIVISES’ full sister RA RA EPIC at last years Magic Millions Broodmare Sale, in foal to boom sire DEEP FIELD for $80,000. Imagine what he could get for her now! But its safe to say Tregea is sitting pretty and sometimes Racing is all about patience. To finish and emphasise the importance of patience in racing I will leave a quote by the Late, Great Bart Cummings:

“Patience is the cheapest thing in racing, and the least used”

WA – Belmont 26/06/2021 $ATURDAY $ET

By Hayden Wessel –

RACE 1: A rough one to start with for the youngsters, but going with FOREVER DREAMING (8) on top, strong win last time in and can repeat that from a good draw. For meTOPPA THE MOUNTAIN (2) can run a very cheeky race from gate 1, especially if he kicks up and holds the fence, worth watching. STARRING KNIGHT (7) and VOGUES CHOICE (13) both talented first starters who will no doubt show some promise today. 

RACE 2: EXPRESS TIME (2) definitely on top for me here, from a good draw should be able to replicate last starts efforts. SPEEDY MISS(1) will be a danger, and could be a challenge. VITAL BLAST (5) and SNIPPY MISS (8) place chances. 

RACE 3: Really tough race this one, leaning with CRESCENT CITY (9), will most likely shoot over and grab the lead. If he can do that then he’ll run a race. Can’t ignore ABERDEEN QUEEN (1), even with the weight and likely lack of speed in the race she’s a class mare. TRULY INSPIRED (8) and BEAT THE BRO (2) are both ones to watch, can’t rule them out either. 

RACE 4: SECRET PLAN (7) on top here, with Pike on board he should be able to kick off this preparation with a win. ACROMANTULA (2) is a worry, with a soft lead could give something to chase, but the weight may be a tad much. VANE TEMPEST (3) looks she’ll get the run of the race, interesting to see if she’s got what it takes to finish it off. REIGN OF FIRE (5) place chance.

RACE 5: Very exciting race this one, and can’t go against the shirt favourite MISS CONTEKI(4). A tough win over Nerodio is outstanding form and she’s a classy mare. PANZDOWN (5) the only challenge. GEMMAS SON (1) and LONG BEACH (6) for placings.

RACE 6: Tricky race this one, but FAIREDU (6) for me here. Looks set to get the best run of the race, sit off the speed a tad and chime in down the straight. DEVOTED STAR (13) next best, will have a strong finish but may have too much ground to make up, watch if she settles closer.MR DELEGATOR (8) looks the pacemaker, if he can shoot to the fence and stack them up then it might get interesting. Can’t leave out SECRET STATUE (15) but it’ll be tricky from gate 1, stuck on the fence is not where you want to be. 

RACE 7: Stay out race, really not a good betting field and difficult. If I had to, I’d be with ADORNMENT (1). BORN TO TRY (10), BLACKWATER BAY (8) and TRUE ATTRACTION (3) all chances. 

RACE 8: Main event of the day, and I’m going with DANCE MUSIX (8). No natural leader in the race apart from her, and if she crosses and takes the fence then I think it might be game over. THE VELVET KING (2) is a definite watch, from the draw could possibly kick up on the fence. If he sits off he’s going to be in a position to challenge anyway. Can’t ignore LEADING GIRL (7), but whether there is enough speed in the race for her to chase I don’t know. KAY CEE (7) is a very classy mare on her day and if she turns up, she’ll give a show. Just depends if she does turn up. 

RACE 9: The classic western phrase of “Back Pike and drink what you like” will be on show in the last here. BRIGHT DIAMOND (10) looks set to get the job done. THE SPRUIKER (8) may provide some challenge. NO SURRENDER (7) and LONSDALE LADY (6) for the place.

GOOD LUCK & HAPPY PUNTING!!!